近60a长三角地区极端高温事件变化特征及其对城市化的响应

基于长三角地区1951~2014年56个国家级气象站点逐日气温记录资料,通过计算极端高温事件相关指标(极端最高温TXx,极端最低温TNn,高温日数Htd和低温日数Ltd),利用GIS空间分析技术和Mann-Kendall时间趋势分析方法分析了长三角地区近60 a极端高温事件的空间分异特征和时间变化趋势,并探讨了城市化发展对区域极端高温事件时空变异的影响。结果表明:(1)长三角地区极端高温事件指标均表现为一定的上升趋势,极端低温指标(TNn和Ltd)线性变化趋势比极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)更为显著,变化趋势最显著的地区集中在经济和城市化水平较高的城市及周边地区(如上海、杭州等)。(2)极端高温指标(TXx和Htd)多年平均总体表现为南高北低,西高东低的趋势,而极端低温指标中TNn多年平均为由中部向南北两侧降低,Ltd多年平均呈现自中部向南北南侧增多的趋势。(3)从1990~2000到2000~2010年,城市化对极端高温事件的影响增强,快速城市化对北部城市极端高温事件的影响高于南部城市。     

基于地面监测数据的2013~2015年长三角地区PM2.5时空特征

近年来,长三角地区灰霾天气持续增多,空气细颗粒物污染问题日益突出。基于2013年1月至2015年5月长三角地区及周边缓冲区内共214个空气质量监测站点PM_2.5逐时监测数据,运用普通克里金插值方法,从年、季、月尺度上分析了PM_2.5的空间分布格局和时间动态变化。结果表明:(1)2 a来,长三角地区PM_2.5浓度空间分布明显呈现整体北部高南部低,局部地区略有突出的分布特征;长三角地区PM_2.5浓度年均值为57.08μg/m³;其中,江苏省PM_2.5的年均值为三省市最高,为65.84μg/m³;其次为上海市,年均值为53.87μg/m³;浙江省PM_2.5的年均值较小,为51.53μg/m³。(2)从季节尺度分析,长三角地区PM_2.5浓度变化表现出冬春季高,夏秋季低的变化趋势;这与区域内冬季风向来源、降水稀少、气象扩散条件差有着密切的关系; (3)长三角地区月浓度变化大致呈U形分布; 12月份PM_2.5浓度最高; 3月份以后, PM_2.5浓度开始呈逐步下降趋势;在5~9月份,区域PM_2.5处于"U"字的谷底,其中6月份夏收时期秸秆焚烧、气象等因素导致PM_2.5浓度有略微升高;进入10月份后迅速攀升,且11、12月份呈现持续升高态势。     

长江经济带PM_(2.5)时空特征及影响因素研究

大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))因其对空气环境质量乃至人类健康的巨大危害而逐渐引起学者们的关注。本文以我国综合实力最强、战略支撑作用最为突出的区域之一——长江经济带为研究对象,基于城市级空气质量监测数据,运用地理学时空分析与GIS可视化方法探索并呈现了2015年长江经济带PM_(2.5)的时空分布特征及其演变规律;在此基础上,结合空间回归模型考察了PM_(2.5)浓度与区域城市发展之间的内在关系。结果表明,就空间特征而言,长江中下游地区PM_(2.5)污染较长江上游地区更为严重,长江北岸地区比长江南岸地区更为严重;PM_(2.5)高浓度集聚地带主要位于鄂皖苏大部分地区,与空气质量较佳的云南及其周边地区呈"对角"分布状态。长江经济带内城市间PM_(2.5)浓度存在着显著的正向空间自相关,且自相关性随距离增大而不断减弱,其门槛尺度约为900 km;在这一范围内,PM_(2.5)空间集聚效应较为明显。就时间特征而言,冬季PM_(2.5)浓度相对较高,春秋两季次之,夏季空气质量最好;各地区浓度分布在年初相对离散,后有所趋同。此外,PM_(2.5)与其他类型的大气污染物(如SO2、NO2、O3)浓度两两之间均存在着显著的正相关性,暗示大气污染物从原发污染演变为二次污染,形成恶性循环。空间回归分析结果表明,PM_(2.5)污染随经济发展水平的提高呈现先上升后下降的趋势,在一定程度上支持了"环境库兹涅兹曲线"假说;且人口密度、公共交通运输强度均在不同程度上导致长江经济带PM_(2.5)浓度的升高。最后,从区域性联防联控、不同类型大气污染物协同治理、促进经济发展方式转型等方面为长江经济带的大气环境治理提出切实可行的政策建议。     

长江经济带后备适宜建设用地潜力

随着中央政府将长江经济带发展提到国家区域战略的新高度,其对建设用地的需求将进一步增加。作为客观反映地区剩余或潜在建设用地对未来人口集聚、工业化和城镇化发展承载能力的指标,后备适宜建设用地潜力成为决定研究区域能否持续稳定发展的关键因素。基于此,本文根据后备适宜建设用地的计算方法和评价技术流程,测算了长江经济带后备适宜建设用地潜力,并对其空间分布特征进行了分析。结果表明:长江经济带后备适宜建设用地面积为85 672.35 km2,约占研究区总面积的4.18%,总体潜力不大,空间上呈现出长江北部高于南部,中游、下游、上游地区依次递减的分布趋势;人均后备适宜建设用地0.22亩/人,下、中、上游地区呈现出依次递减的趋势;四川盆地、两湖平原、皖北等区域的后备适宜建设用地潜力较大,长三角、大城市市辖区以及川西地区不仅后备适宜建设用地较缺乏,人均后备适宜建设用地面积也较低。     

长三角典型城市公交车实际道路细颗粒物排放测试

为研究长三角典型城市公交车细颗粒物排放特征，采用便携式排放测试系统（PEMS），对上海、杭州和苏州三大城市的8辆典型城市公交车开展实际道路细颗粒物排放实验。研究结果表明：长三角典型城市车辆的实际道路平均车速为22.7 km/h，怠速比例为20.4%，加减速比例为54.5%；在稳态行驶工况下，随车速增大，公交车颗粒物质量及数量排放呈逐渐增大趋势；在20 km/h车速范围内，上海国III、国IV和苏州国III公交车颗粒数浓度呈双峰粒径分布，其他公交车均为单峰分布；随比功率的增大，公交车颗粒质量呈逐渐增大的趋势，国IV公交车颗粒数量呈先下降再增大趋势，国III公交车颗粒数量呈上升趋势；公交车颗粒质量综合排放因子为0.8~189 mg/km，颗粒数量综合排放因子为6.2×10¹²~9.6×10¹⁴#/km。     

不同类型环境规制对国际R&D溢出效应的影响比较研究——以长江经济带为例

基于2003~2014年长江经济带的省际面板数据探讨了不同类型的环境规制对国际RD溢出效应的影响,通过熵值法客观赋权,构建命令控制型、市场激励型和自愿参与型3种环境规制指数,进一步考察了不同类型的环境规制对国际RD溢出的影响。研究表明:(1)环境规制对国际RD溢出水平呈现"反N型"曲线关系,虽然类型不同,但随着环境规制强度不断提升,国际RD溢出效应均呈现先下降、后上升、再下降的趋势;(2)不同类型的环境规制对国际RD溢出的作用具有异质性,当前在长江经济带发挥作用的主要是命令控制型和市场激励型环境规制,自愿参与型环境规制对国际RD溢出效应的激励作用尚未完全显现。结论在一定程度上印证了"波特假说"在开放条件下也是成立的,最后依据上述结论提出了相应的政策建议。     

Geochemical distribution,bioavailability and potential toxicity of some trace metals in a complex micro-tidal estuary,Southwest India

The spatial and temporal variations of some trace metals in the surface sediments of Cochin Estuary were analyzed along with their geochemical associations to identify the possible sources, bioavailability and the health risks posed by them. The dominance of kaolinite and suggested that clay minerals distribution is influenced by sediment sorting. Total metal analysis revealed enrichment for Cd, Pb and Zn due to anthropogenic activities. The speciation analysis established that notwithstanding the large availability, carbonate as well as organic and sulfides bound fractions showed negligible associations with most of the metals. Hydrous Fe–Mn oxides appeared to play a major role in controlling the fate and transport of these metals in the sediments of Cochin Estuary. Lower contribution of the residual fractions for Cd (21%–26%), Pb (<60%) and Zn (24%–42%) indicated an obvious increase of other geochemical fractions. Risk assessment analysis revealed that regardless of total concentration, none of the analyzed metals were at safe levels in the estuary as appreciable percentages were found to be associated with mobile geochemical forms. The speciation study conspicuously established that the metals originating from non-geogenic sources are largely associated with the labile fractions and hence are more detrimental to the aquatic biota.     

流域经济增长空间分异研究——基于2001～2009年长江流域数据的面板计量分析

流域经济是以水系为轴线的区域经济，其发展状况对国民经济有重要影响，其研究为区域开发提供新视角。在理论方法上，根据内生经济增长理论，采用柯布 道格拉斯生产函数，构建一个包括技术进步、物质资本和人力资本作为内生要素的流域经济增长框架。在实践论证上，以长江为样本域，运用面板计量分析方法，测度生产要素对流域上中下游经济增长的影响。结果显示：不同生产要素对流域经济不同域段作用强度不同，且呈现出明显的梯度效应，即沿江而下，技术进步和人力资本对经济增长的贡献度逐渐加大，物质资本则恰好相反。在此基础上，提出缩小流域经济的不平衡程度的政策建议，主要包括促使流域上游地区人力资本开发、实施流域大开发战略和推进流域城市化等     

The relationships between mercury and selenium in plankton and fish from a tropical food web

Background, aim, and scope  Selenium (Se) has been shown to reduce mercury (Hg) bioavailability and trophic transfer in aquatic ecosystems. The study of methylmercury (MeHg) and Se bioaccumulation by plankton is therefore of great significance in order to obtain a better understanding of the estuarine processes concerning Hg and Se accumulation and biomagnification throughout the food web. In the western South Atlantic, few studies have documented trace element and MeHg in fish tissues. No previous study about trace elements and MeHg in plankton has been conducted concerning tropical marine food webs. Se, Hg, and MeHg were determined in two size classes of plankton, microplankton (70–290 μm) and mesoplankton (≥290 μm), and also in muscle tissues and livers of four fish species of different trophic levels (Mugil liza, a planktivorous fish; Bagre spp., an omnivorous fish; Micropogonias furnieri, a benthic carnivorous fish; and Centropomus undecimalis, a pelagic carnivorous fish) from a polluted estuary in the Brazilian Southeast coast, Guanabara Bay. Biological and ecological factors such as body length, feeding habits, and trophic transfer were considered in order to outline the relationships between these two elements. The differences in trace element levels among the different trophic levels were investigated. Materials and methods  Fish were collected from July 2004 to August 2005 at Guanabara Bay. Plankton was collected from six locations within the bay in August 2005. Total mercury (THg) was determined by cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry (CV-AAS) with sodium borohydride as a reducing agent. MeHg analysis was conducted by digesting samples with an alcoholic potassium hydroxide solution followed by dithizone-toluene extraction. MeHg was then identified and quantified in the toluene layer by gas chromatography with an electron capture detector (GC-ECD). Se was determined by AAS using graphite tube with Pin platform and Zeeman background correction. Results and discussion  Total mercury, MeHg, and Se increased with plankton size class. THg and Se values were below 2.0 and 4.8 μg g⁻¹ dry wt in microplankton and mesoplankton, respectively. A large excess of molar concentrations of Se in relation to THg was observed in both plankton size class and both fish tissues. Plankton presented the lowest concentrations of this element. In fish, the liver showed the highest THg and Se concentrations. THg and Se in muscle were higher in Centropomus undecimalis (3.4 and 25.5 nmol g⁻¹) than in Micropogonias furnieri (2.9 and 15.3 nmol g⁻¹), Bagre spp (1.3 and 3.4 nmol g⁻¹) and Mugil liza (0.3 and 5.1 nmol g⁻¹), respectively. The trophic transfer of THg and Se was observed between trophic levels from prey (considering microplankton and mesoplankton) to top predator (fish). The top predators in this ecosystem, Centropomus undecimalis and Micropogonias furnieri, presented similar MeHg concentrations in muscles and liver. Microplankton presented lower ratios of methylmercury to total mercury concentration (MeHg/THg) (34%) than those found in mesoplankton (69%) and in the muscle of planktivorous fish, Mugil liza (56%). The other fish species presented similar MeHg/THg in muscle tissue (of around 100%). M. liza showed lower MeHg/THg in the liver than C. undecimalis (35%), M. furnieri (31%) and Bagre spp. (22%). Significant positive linear relationships were observed between the molar concentrations of THg and Se in the muscle tissue of M. furnieri and M. liza. These fish species also showed significant inverse linear relationships between hepatic MeHg and Se, suggesting a strong antagonistic effect of Se on MeHg assimilation and accumulation. Conclusions  Differences found among the concentrations THg, MeHg, and Se in microplankton, mesozooplankton, and fishes were probably related to the preferred prey and bioavailability of these elements in the marine environment. The increasing concentration of MeHg and Se at successively higher trophic levels of the food web of Guanabara Bay corresponds to a transfer between trophic levels from the lower trophic level to the top-level predator, suggesting that MeHg and Se were biomagnified throughout the food web. Hg and Se were positively correlated with the fish standard length, suggesting that larger and older fish bioaccumulated more of these trace elements. THg, MeHg, and Se were a function of the plankton size. Recommendations and perspectives  There is a need to assess the role of selenium in mercury accumulation in tropical ecosystems. Without further studies of the speciation of selenium in livers of fishes from this region, the precise role of this element, if any, cannot be verified in positively affecting mercury accumulation. Further studies of this element in the study of marine species should include liver samples containing relatively high concentrations of mercury. A basin-wide survey of selenium in fishes is also recommended.     

长江口海域底栖生态环境质量评价——AMBI和M-AMBI法

AMBI(AZTI’s Marine Biotic Index)和M-AMBI(Multivariate-AMBI)指数可以有效地评价河口和近岸海域软底质海洋大型底栖动物群落对人为和自然扰动的响应.本研究根据2009年4月在长江口采集的大型底栖动物资料,首次在长江口海域同时运用栖息密度和生物量计算AMBI(BAMBI)和M-AMBI(M-BAMBI),对其进行底栖生态质量评价.结果表明,长江口底栖生态环境皆受到不同程度的干扰,其中受干扰最严重的区域集中在杭州湾、舟山及长江口门区附近海域,与该海域的陆源排污、富营养化以及大量的海岸工程建设等有密切的关系.单因素方差分析表明,运用栖息密度和生物量计算出的两个指数值,评价结果无明显的差异.与AMBI相比,M-AMBI与本研究生物群落结构参数以及环境因子的匹配度更高,能够更有效地评价长江口底栖生态环境质量.Pearson相关分析和一元线性回归分析表明,M-AMBI与底层水体的富营养化指数之间存在线性显著负相关关系,而与表层水体的呈非线性显著负相关;AMBI与富营养化指数之间却无显著相关关系,说明M-AMBI更适合指示长江口水域的富营养化压力.